Doug Simon, President and CEO of D S Simon Productions, weighs in on Obama signing the Debt Ceiling Bill and what it will mean for his voter approval rating as election year approaches.
Some of Doug’s VlogViews:
“One of the traps that Obama is in from a PR perspective is the criticisms of him tend not to be grounded in specific choices on policy but more in general statements about his persona or a belief in what he’s done.”
“His core problem is something I spoke with Tina Brown about on this vlog (http://bit.ly/cgHxOw) about a year ago is that the folks on the left who should be his natural and loudest supporters instead voice disgruntlement. This group on the left was responsible for undermining his policies and public perception of him to the point that it allowed more republicans to win many more seats in the house and setting the stage for the whole debt conflict.”
“Obviously it’s so hard to fight on intangibles. From a fact basis, going after Osama Bin Laden seemed to be gutsy leadership. That’s still not resonating with those who oppose him. Here are some of the things I think he’s going to do between now and the election of 2012 to motivate those on the left to support him strongly; and I think it breaks down into three specific things: One, I think he’s going to make some bold pronouncements on social issues. I think he is also going to be focusing on immigration reform, whether he succeeds legislatively or not, is to help motivate the Hisapnic audience that is voting from him in a larger percentage compared to other voting blocks that are not as happy with his performance. I think he’s also going to take some further steps on bringing the troops home from the conflicts overseas to further strengthen the liberal wing.”
Doug Simon, President and CEO of D S Simon Productions, shares his 2011 predictions for the economy, politics, entertainment, sports, and the PR industry. This is his third year doing so and even we have to admit, he’s been pretty spot on. To view Doug’s 2010 predictions, go to http://bit.ly/dExdZz. To view his 2009 predictions, go to http://bit.ly/gGWWhH.
Doug’s Predictions:
“Let’s get started on the economy: I think we’re going to see a continued slow improvement in the economy during the course of 2011. Unemployment is also going to be dropping but at a slower level than would be hoped for given the state of the recession that we just experienced. One little bump in the road, gas prices are going to increase. I think the stock market, after correctly predicting it’s rise two consecutive years, is going to stay relatively flat, probably up a little bit but still remain in the 11,000’s. I think toward the end of the year, we’re going to see corporate profits, which had an awesome 2010, take a slight hit as they begin to have to expand their employee to meet with the increasing demand.”
“Here are my predictions for U.S. politics in 2011. President Obama will maintain a stronger approval rating then he had last year before the election, in part because he’ll now have the Republican led House of Representatives to use as a counterpoint. I think because of that, no major Democratic liberal candidate will oppose him in the Democratic primary. Healthcare will continue to be talked about and focused on resolutions, potential legislation, etc. but not a lot is going to change to the law that was passed last year, in 2010. Now I have two predictions that are related to Sarah Palin. One is that a second office holder who is on Sarah Palin’s “hit list” on her website will be targeted for assassination this year. Second, and I think this is because Sarah Palin is a lot smarter than a lot of people think she is, is that she’ll decide not to run for the Presidency in 2012 despite the fact that she could easily win the Republican nomination. She’s going to hold off for 2016 when her chances will be better.”
“Media and Entertainment: We’ll continue to see the trend where an increased number of folks get their news information online compared to TV stations as that gap will be closed even further. However, most of that information online will be coming from traditional news sources. We’ll also see what I call the media bias gap, and an example after the recent assassination attempt on Representative Gabrielle Giffords, the New York Times said many cite extremism on both sides for the uptick in violence. It would be like saying that it was the right that was responsible for the anti-government violence in the 60’s, not true, it was the left. Right now, it’s the right that’s generating this violence not the left, period. In the entertainment world, I think The Social Network is going to win the Oscar for Best Picture and Natalie Portman’s going to take it for Best Actress (for Black Swan). This prediction comes from my two teenage sons who say that Idol’s (American Idol) going to see a drop in ratings and relevance and that this will be it’s second to last year.”
“In the world of sports, the big story is going to be labor problems in both the NBA and the NFL. I think they’re going to play out a bit differently. I think for the NBA there is going to be a lockout and the big reason for that is many of the players have enough money not to take a hit if they sit out, even for an entire season. The NFL, with far more money at stake and more players who don’t make huge salaries and have shorter careers, I think that’s going to get settled more quickly. It will be moving eventually to an 18 game season but not necessarily next year. I also, unfortunately as a Knicks fan, do think that the Heat is going to win the NBA championship. The Mets I’m not holding out any hopes for buying playoff tickets this year.”
“I’m going to wrap up my predictions for 2011 with a look at the Public Relations and communications industry. Here I see five things that I’m pretty confident will be happening. One is a move of senior executives from the Advertising world to the Public Relations world as authentic content has become more important, you can’t just buy your way on anymore. It’s got to be relevant to consumers. That’s something that PR has excelled at and that’s where there is going to be the action. News for agencies will be okay, they’ll continue to grow but increasingly corporate communicators are going to be looking to hire people for project assignments and those assignments increasingly are going to be about creating content and also distributing them via social media. Two services that will grow in popularity in the broadcast PR industry are Internet Media Tours as well as Internet Interview Tours. Finally, for D S Simon Productions specifically, I predict that we’ll be celebrating our 25th anniversary this year and to do that we’re going to be moving to larger headquarter offices as well.”
The Economy:
The stock market will continue to rise. Unemployment will stabilize and will actually start dropping in advance of the election.
Politics:
Republicans will make gains in November but smaller than anticipated.
Our Industry:
Optimistic about new transparency and I don’t feel that there will be a flare up over the FTC Spokesperson Guidelines. PRSA will continue to be less relevant.
Random Thoughts:
Tiger Woods will return and won’t win a major. On the bright side, his “sex addiction” will be treated successfully.
As a college student, Adam Brickley started the Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President movement in 2007. Perhaps he should have started the “Elect Sarah Palin for Vice President” movement. Adam discusses the initiative that took the political system by storm.
“The media didn’t do a great job as far as I’m concerned. I mean, we had our share of fun at the expense of Katie Couric and Charile Gibson but I’ve been on TV criticizing the McCain campaign’s handling of her, they brought in a lot of old Bush staffers for that job. If you know anything about campaign management, the Rove school is very much about tight message control, which doesn’t work if you have a candidate like Sarah Palin, who is used to going off the record and talking to media a lot, and off the cuff is really where her bread and butter is.”
Doug Simon Makes His Predictions for 2011
To Link To Post: http://bit.ly/dWgJZP
Doug Simon, President and CEO of D S Simon Productions, shares his 2011 predictions for the economy, politics, entertainment, sports, and the PR industry. This is his third year doing so and even we have to admit, he’s been pretty spot on. To view Doug’s 2010 predictions, go to http://bit.ly/dExdZz. To view his 2009 predictions, go to http://bit.ly/gGWWhH.
Doug’s Predictions:
“Let’s get started on the economy: I think we’re going to see a continued slow improvement in the economy during the course of 2011. Unemployment is also going to be dropping but at a slower level than would be hoped for given the state of the recession that we just experienced. One little bump in the road, gas prices are going to increase. I think the stock market, after correctly predicting it’s rise two consecutive years, is going to stay relatively flat, probably up a little bit but still remain in the 11,000’s. I think toward the end of the year, we’re going to see corporate profits, which had an awesome 2010, take a slight hit as they begin to have to expand their employee to meet with the increasing demand.”
“Here are my predictions for U.S. politics in 2011. President Obama will maintain a stronger approval rating then he had last year before the election, in part because he’ll now have the Republican led House of Representatives to use as a counterpoint. I think because of that, no major Democratic liberal candidate will oppose him in the Democratic primary. Healthcare will continue to be talked about and focused on resolutions, potential legislation, etc. but not a lot is going to change to the law that was passed last year, in 2010. Now I have two predictions that are related to Sarah Palin. One is that a second office holder who is on Sarah Palin’s “hit list” on her website will be targeted for assassination this year. Second, and I think this is because Sarah Palin is a lot smarter than a lot of people think she is, is that she’ll decide not to run for the Presidency in 2012 despite the fact that she could easily win the Republican nomination. She’s going to hold off for 2016 when her chances will be better.”
“Media and Entertainment: We’ll continue to see the trend where an increased number of folks get their news information online compared to TV stations as that gap will be closed even further. However, most of that information online will be coming from traditional news sources. We’ll also see what I call the media bias gap, and an example after the recent assassination attempt on Representative Gabrielle Giffords, the New York Times said many cite extremism on both sides for the uptick in violence. It would be like saying that it was the right that was responsible for the anti-government violence in the 60’s, not true, it was the left. Right now, it’s the right that’s generating this violence not the left, period. In the entertainment world, I think The Social Network is going to win the Oscar for Best Picture and Natalie Portman’s going to take it for Best Actress (for Black Swan). This prediction comes from my two teenage sons who say that Idol’s (American Idol) going to see a drop in ratings and relevance and that this will be it’s second to last year.”
“In the world of sports, the big story is going to be labor problems in both the NBA and the NFL. I think they’re going to play out a bit differently. I think for the NBA there is going to be a lockout and the big reason for that is many of the players have enough money not to take a hit if they sit out, even for an entire season. The NFL, with far more money at stake and more players who don’t make huge salaries and have shorter careers, I think that’s going to get settled more quickly. It will be moving eventually to an 18 game season but not necessarily next year. I also, unfortunately as a Knicks fan, do think that the Heat is going to win the NBA championship. The Mets I’m not holding out any hopes for buying playoff tickets this year.”
“I’m going to wrap up my predictions for 2011 with a look at the Public Relations and communications industry. Here I see five things that I’m pretty confident will be happening. One is a move of senior executives from the Advertising world to the Public Relations world as authentic content has become more important, you can’t just buy your way on anymore. It’s got to be relevant to consumers. That’s something that PR has excelled at and that’s where there is going to be the action. News for agencies will be okay, they’ll continue to grow but increasingly corporate communicators are going to be looking to hire people for project assignments and those assignments increasingly are going to be about creating content and also distributing them via social media. Two services that will grow in popularity in the broadcast PR industry are Internet Media Tours as well as Internet Interview Tours. Finally, for D S Simon Productions specifically, I predict that we’ll be celebrating our 25th anniversary this year and to do that we’re going to be moving to larger headquarter offices as well.”
Links: New York Times Article on the Attempted Assassination of Representative Gabrielle Giffords
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